Quarter-by-quarter breakdown
Each observation date in order. The walk stops the instant the note autocalls — later quarters are shown as already redeemed. If the note is never autocalled, the final quarter's row also carries the knock-in verdict.
| Quarter | BTC close | % of initial | Status | Amount paid |
|---|
How it works
Every quarter, the note checks BTC's closing price against three barriers set as a percentage of the initial reference price. First it asks the biggest question: is the price at or above the autocall barrier? If yes, the note redeems immediately, paying back the full principal plus that quarter's coupon — the note is over, and any remaining quarters never happen. If the autocall barrier isn't hit, the note asks a smaller question: is the price at least at the coupon barrier? If yes, you collect that quarter's coupon and the note rolls into the next quarter. If the price is below the coupon barrier, that quarter's coupon is simply withheld — in this simplified model there is no "memory" feature carrying a missed coupon forward to be paid later if the price recovers, so a withheld coupon is gone for good. Only at the very last quarter, and only if the note was never autocalled, does the knock-in barrier come into play: if the final price is at or above it, your principal comes back in full; if it's below, principal protection is gone and you're repaid principal × (final price ÷ initial price) — the same percentage loss a spot holder would have taken, cushioned only by whatever coupons you collected in the stronger quarters along the way.
Reading the two scenarios
The two presets above show the whole range of outcomes. In the autocall scenario, BTC dips to 93.9% and 82.6% of the initial price in Q1 and Q2 — both above the 70% coupon barrier, so each quarter pays a $350 coupon — then Q3 closes at 102.6%, clearing the 100% autocall barrier. The note redeems on the spot: principal ($10,000) plus that quarter's $350 coupon, for a total received of $11,050 across the two prior coupons plus the payout — a +10.5% return in just three quarters (nine months), and the knock-in barrier never even comes into play because the note never reaches maturity. In the knock-in loss scenario, BTC never gets anywhere near the autocall barrier and instead grinds down: coupons are paid in Q1 and Q2 while the price is still above 70% of initial, withheld in Q3 once it drops to 67.8%, and by Q4 the price has fallen to 60.9% of initial — below the 65% knock-in barrier. Principal protection is gone: the payout is principal × (70,000 ÷ 115,000) = $6,086.96, plus the $700 in coupons collected earlier, for a total of $6,786.96 — a -32.1% loss. This is the entire point of the product: it's not a savings account, it's a bet that BTC stays roughly flat-to-up, and unlike the fully-protected sharkfin structured note, a bad enough quarter-four close means you genuinely lose money on your principal, not just miss out on upside. Compare the payoff shape against a dual investment, price the same barriers with real option legs on the crypto options calculator, or check how fast implied volatility (and the premium behind products like this) can collapse with the IV crush calculator.