Win rate and R:R are two sides of one coin
A strategy is only profitable when its win rate beats what its reward-to-risk requires. Most traders chase win rate; the edge is usually in R:R. Model the full edge on the expectancy calculator.
The win rate you need to be profitable with your specific RR ratio
Break-even win rate = 1 Γ· (1 + reward/risk ratio). At 2:1 RR: 1 Γ· 3 = 33.3% minimum. At 1:1: 50% minimum. At 0.5:1 (more common in scalping than people admit): 66.7% minimum β meaning you need to win two in three just to break even.
Add fees and the required win rate goes up. At 0.11% round-trip taker fees on 10x leverage and 2% TP targets: effective net reward shrinks from 2% to ~1.78% per winner. Break-even win rate shifts from 33.3% to 36% at 2:1. Small fee impact, but compounds across 100+ trades.
Most strategies without systematic testing run 35β50% win rate. Below 50%, you need RR above 1:1 to stay profitable. The mistake is chasing higher win rates by taking profits early β cutting RR to 0.5:1 to boost win rate to 60% still loses money: EV = 0.6 Γ 0.5 β 0.4 Γ 1 = β0.10.
Related: risk/reward calculator, profit factor, win rate tracker.