Unlocks are scheduled supply shocks
A low 'circulating' supply can hide a wave of unlocks about to hit. Check the vesting schedule and the FDV before buying. See the dilution on the FDV calculator.
Vesting schedules are supply schedules
When a project says "team tokens vest over 3 years with a 1-year cliff," that's a calendar of future sell pressure. At the cliff date, a year of accrued tokens unlocks at once — historically one of the most reliable local-top signals for low-float launches.
The number to compute: unlock value as a percentage of daily traded volume. A $20M monthly unlock into a coin doing $5M daily volume is four full days of buying needed to absorb it — the price gives way. The same unlock into $200M daily volume is a rounding error.
Float math explains most "mysterious" dumps. A coin at $2 with 10% circulating and a $200M cap has a $2B fully diluted valuation; every vesting event pushes the circulating number toward that FDV. Buying low-float tokens without reading the vesting schedule is buying a stock without knowing 90% more shares are printing.