ステーブルコインは法律ではなく約束です
ペグは動かなくなるまで保持します。 2023年のSVBの恐怖でUSDCは一時0.87ドルに達し、USTはゼロになりました。発行者間で分散し、不安定なステーブルコインをレバレッジ証拠金として使用することを避け、出口を把握します。てこの側をモデル化します。 清算計算機.
What a depeg scenario costs your stack
Stablecoins fail in two speeds: brief liquidity wobbles ($0.995, hours, recovered) and structural breaks (the death spiral, unrecovered). Pricing the exposure: a $50k stable allocation at a hypothetical 3% depeg is $1,500 gone if you panic-sell the bottom, $0 if it recovers and you held — and everything if the break is structural and you waited. The calculator maps position size against depeg depths so the decision is pre-made rather than improvised at 3am.
History calibrates the scenarios: USDC touched $0.87 in March 2023 (bank exposure, recovered in days); UST went to zero in a week from $18B. The difference wasn't chart patterns — it was collateral: fully-reserved coins wobble and mean-revert; algorithmic or fractional designs break and don't. The depeg response should key off the collateral model, not the price alone.
The practical hedges: split stable holdings across 2–3 issuers with different collateral and jurisdictions, keep the panic-threshold written down in advance (e.g., structural coins: exit under $0.98, no discussion), and remember that during the wobble, the exit stampede itself — spreads, gas, withdrawal queues — costs 1–3% even when the peg holds.