Your entry on the curve
What your SOL actually buys at this point on the bonding curve — the tokens out, your slice of the fixed 1-billion supply, and the average price you paid after fees and your own slippage.
| Metric | Value |
|---|
Where the curve takes you
Your gross multiple at each exit market cap, and the graduation odds you'd need for that outcome to break even across many attempts. Graduation to Raydium sits near $69k; everything above is life on the open market.
| Exit market cap | Your multiple | Break-even odds |
|---|
Why the multiple lies and the expected value doesn't
A memecoin buy always shows a spectacular headline multiple, because the curve compresses a 1-billion supply into a market cap that starts near $4–5k. Turn a $25k entry into a $1M market cap and that is a 40× on paper. But the paper number quietly assumes the coin lives, and on pump.fun roughly 98–99% of launches never graduate to Raydium — they stall on the curve and bleed to zero. The number that actually governs a portfolio of these bets is the odds-weighted expected value: the graduation probability multiplied by the winning multiple, with the failing branch counted as the total loss it usually is. At a 1.4% graduation rate you need your winners to average more than about 70× just to break even, which is why disciplined memecoin traders sit out most launches, size every entry as money they can lose in full, and read the expected value rather than the multiple. Being earlier on the curve makes the winners pay more and reach break-even at lower targets — it does not change the base rate of coins that die. Pair this with the rekt recovery plan to see how many wins it takes to climb out of a losing streak, and the position size calculator to keep any single lottery ticket small.
The math
Pump.fun seeds each token with virtual reserves of ≈30 SOL and ≈1.073 billion tokens, so their product k ≈ 3.219×10¹⁰ is held constant. With a SOL reserve s the token reserve is k ÷ s, so the price is p = s ÷ (k/s) = s² ÷ k — price rises with the square of the SOL in the curve. From an entry market cap M (in dollars) we back out the reserve: the price per token is M ÷ (SOL price × 1e9), so s = √(p·k). Your buy adds effective SOL e = buy × (1 − fee), moving the reserve to s′ = s + e, and the tokens you receive are the constant-product amount k/s − k/s′. Your supply share is that divided by the 1-billion total.
At an exit market cap X the price per token is X ÷ 1e9, so your holding is worth tokens × X ÷ 1e9 in dollars, less the sell-side fee. The gross multiple is that exit value divided by what you spent. The expected value multiplies it by the graduation probability g and treats the failing branch as zero, so EV = g × multiple; the break-even odds for any exit are simply 1 ÷ multiple. This is a curve model: it ignores the creator's own buys, MEV bots front-running the launch, post-graduation Raydium liquidity depth and sell pressure, and the fact that a "target market cap" is rarely reachable in size. Treat it as an entry-and-expectancy screen, not a price prediction.