Question 1

Why is a winning streak so unlikely even with a good win rate?

Accepted Answer

Because independent probabilities multiply. A 55% win rate sounds like an edge, but five in a row is 0.55⁵ ≈ 5%. Each extra trade multiplies by another 0.55, so the chance of an unbroken run falls off a cliff — long streaks are rare no matter how good the single-trade odds look.

Question 2

Should I let profits ride across trades?

Accepted Answer

Rarely with the full stake. Parlaying compounds returns fast, but a single loss anywhere in the chain resets or reverses the whole run, and the odds of avoiding that loss shrink with every added trade. Sizing a fixed fraction each time captures most of the growth with a fraction of the ruin risk.

Calculateur de probabilité de négociation

Multiplier les cotes est la raison pour laquelle les séquences se brisent