Market Value to Realized Value — one of the most reliable Bitcoin cycle indicators.
MVRV = Market Cap ÷ Realized Cap
Market Cap = Current price × total supply (what the market values BTC at now).
Realized Cap = Each coin valued at the price it last moved on-chain (what holders actually paid).
When MVRV is high, the average holder is sitting on large unrealised gains → selling pressure. When MVRV is low, the average holder is underwater → capitulation / bottom zone.
| MVRV Value | Zone | Historical Signal |
|---|---|---|
| > 3.5 | DANGER | Cycle top territory. 2017 peak: 4.6. 2021 peak: 3.96 |
| 2.5 – 3.5 | CAUTION | Euphoria. Consider taking profits gradually. |
| 1.5 – 2.5 | NEUTRAL | Healthy bull market. Hold and monitor. |
| 1.0 – 1.5 | ACCUMULATE | Fair value zone. Good long-term entry. |
| < 1.0 | OPPORTUNITY | Market cap below realized cap. Historical bottom zone. |
| Date | Event | MVRV | BTC Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2017 | Bull Top | 4.60 | $19,783 |
| Dec 2018 | Bear Bottom | 0.70 | $3,122 |
| Nov 2021 | Bull Top | 3.96 | $68,789 |
| Nov 2022 | Bear Bottom | 0.76 | $15,742 |
| Jan 2025 | Local Top | 2.85 | $109,356 |
Source: Glassnode / on-chain data. Values approximate.