Market Value to Realized Value — one of the most reliable Bitcoin cycle indicators.
MVRV = Market Cap ÷ Realized Cap
Market Cap = Current price × total supply (what the market values BTC at now).
Realized Cap = Each coin valued at the price it last moved on-chain (what holders actually paid).
When MVRV is high, the average holder is sitting on large unrealised gains → selling pressure. When MVRV is low, the average holder is underwater → capitulation / bottom zone.
| MVRV Value | Zone | Historical Signal |
|---|---|---|
| > 3.5 | DANGER | Cycle top territory. 2017 peak: 4.6. 2021 peak: 3.96 |
| 2.5 – 3.5 | CAUTION | Euphoria. Consider taking profits gradually. |
| 1.5 – 2.5 | NEUTRAL | Healthy bull market. Hold and monitor. |
| 1.0 – 1.5 | ACCUMULATE | Fair value zone. Good long-term entry. |
| < 1.0 | OPPORTUNITY | Market cap below realized cap. Historical bottom zone. |
| Date | Event | MVRV | BTC Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2017 | Bull Top | 4.60 | $19,783 |
| Dec 2018 | Bear Bottom | 0.70 | $3,122 |
| Nov 2021 | Bull Top | 3.96 | $68,789 |
| Nov 2022 | Bear Bottom | 0.76 | $15,742 |
| Jan 2025 | Local Top | 2.85 | $109,356 |
Source: Glassnode / on-chain data. Values approximate.
Raw MVRV (used above) is the simplest form of the ratio. Many on-chain dashboards instead show MVRV-Z Score: (Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ standard deviation of Market Cap. The Z-score normalizes for Bitcoin's growing market cap over time, which is why analysts increasingly favor it for cross-cycle comparison — a raw MVRV of 3.5 in 2025 doesn't carry the same weight as 3.5 did back in 2013, but a Z-score does. This page uses raw MVRV because it's what you can compute yourself from two public numbers; MVRV-Z requires the historical standard deviation series, which isn't something you can eyeball from a single data point.
Say BTC market cap sits at $2.05T while realized cap is $950B → MVRV = 2.16, the NEUTRAL "healthy bull" zone. Over the following two months price rallies 20%, pushing market cap to $2.46T. Realized cap barely moves — it only rises to $997B, because most coins that already existed simply gained paper value without changing hands on-chain. New MVRV = 2.47, into CAUTION territory. Realized cap grew just 5% while market cap grew 20% — that gap is exactly what MVRV is built to expose: the market is pricing in gains that haven't been "locked in" by any actual on-chain transaction yet.
Compare that with a scenario where the same 20% price rally came alongside heavy on-chain accumulation — realized cap rising to $1.08T because coins were actively changing hands at the new, higher price. New MVRV = 2.28, staying much closer to NEUTRAL. Same price move, very different signal, because the realized-cap side of the ratio moved with it.
Is MVRV the same as MVRV-Z score?
No. Raw MVRV (Market Cap ÷ Realized Cap) is a simple ratio; MVRV-Z Score is (Market Cap − Realized Cap) divided by the standard deviation of Market Cap, which adjusts for Bitcoin's growing size over time. Most professional dashboards default to Z-score for cross-cycle comparisons, but raw MVRV is easier to compute yourself with two public numbers.
Why do MVRV cycle tops keep getting lower (4.60 → 3.96 → 2.85)?
As Bitcoin's market cap grows, the same dollar amount of new buying moves the ratio less — a $50B inflow matters more to a $200B market cap than a $2T one. This is consistent with the broader diminishing-returns pattern seen across Bitcoin's price cycles, not a sign that MVRV has stopped working.
Does MVRV work for altcoins?
Only loosely. MVRV needs deep, clean realized-cap data, which Bitcoin and (to a lesser extent) Ethereum have thanks to years of on-chain history. Most altcoins have shorter histories and more exchange-internal or wrapped-token movement that distorts the realized-cap side, so MVRV readings for smaller coins are noisier and less trustworthy.