Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model
The S2F model predicts BTC price based on scarcity: how many years of current production would it take to double existing supply?
S2F ratio by halving era
| Era | Block reward | Approx S2F | S2F model price | Actual peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009โ2012 | 50 BTC | ~3.8 | $5 | $32 |
| 2012โ2016 | 25 BTC | ~10 | $52 | $1,150 |
| 2016โ2020 | 12.5 BTC | ~25 | $5,500 | $19,800 |
| 2020โ2024 | 6.25 BTC | ~56 | $55,000 | $73,000 |
| 2024โ2028 โญ | 3.125 BTC | ~120 | ~$500,000 | TBD |
Current price vs S2F model
FAQ
S2F = current circulating supply รท annual new production. Bitcoin's supply is ~19.73M BTC and post-2024-halving annual production is ~164k BTC (3.125 BTC per block), giving a ratio of ~120 โ it would take about 120 years of current mining output to double the existing supply.
No, not as a price target. The original model predicted $100k+ for the 2024โ2028 era based purely on scarcity, and BTC's actual ATH this cycle was $109k โ in range, but the model has systematically overestimated peak prices as each cycle matures and BTC's market cap grows too large for a pure-scarcity model to explain price alone.
Because Bitcoin's block reward halves roughly every four years while circulating supply keeps growing โ cutting annual production in half while the denominator (existing supply) barely changes doubles the ratio each halving era, which is why the table above shows S2F roughly doubling from ~56 (2020โ2024) to ~120 (2024โ2028).