Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model
The S2F model predicts BTC price based on scarcity: how many years of current production would it take to double existing supply?
Current BTC supply
19.73M
Annual production
164k BTC
Stock-to-Flow ratio
~120
S2F model price
~$500k
S2F ratio by halving era
| Era | Block reward | Approx S2F | S2F model price | Actual peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009–2012 | 50 BTC | ~3.8 | $5 | $32 |
| 2012–2016 | 25 BTC | ~10 | $52 | $1,150 |
| 2016–2020 | 12.5 BTC | ~25 | $5,500 | $19,800 |
| 2020–2024 | 6.25 BTC | ~56 | $55,000 | $73,000 |
| 2024–2028 ⭐ | 3.125 BTC | ~120 | ~$500,000 | TBD |
Current price vs S2F model
S2F model price~$500,000
Current BTC priceloading...
Discount to modelloading...
⚠ The S2F model predicted $100k+ for this cycle and BTC hit $109k ATH. The model has overestimated peak prices in recent cycles as BTC matures. Use as one of many data points, not a price target.