BTC 4-Year Cycle Heatmap

Historical Bitcoin performance mapped to its 4-year halving cycles. Each cycle resets at the halving date.

Cycle Phases

Phase 1
Pre-halving
βˆ’12 to 0 months
Phase 2
Early Bull
0 to +12 months
Phase 3
Peak Bull
+12 to +18 months
Phase 4
Bear Market
+18 to +48 months

Historical Cycle Returns

HalvingDateBTC PriceCycle PeakPeak ReturnBear Low
Halving 1Nov 2012$12$1,163 (Nov 2013)+9,592%$172 (Jan 2015)
Halving 2Jul 2016$651$19,783 (Dec 2017)+2,939%$3,122 (Dec 2018)
Halving 3May 2020$8,821$68,789 (Nov 2021)+680%$15,742 (Nov 2022)
Halving 4Apr 2024$63,800$109,356 (Jan 2025)+71%In progress...

Current Cycle Status (Halving 4 β€” Apr 2024)

Average Monthly Returns by Cycle Phase

Month Post-HalvingCycle 1 AvgCycle 2 AvgCycle 3 AvgAvg All
1–3+18%+8%+22%+16%
4–6+31%+5%+14%+17%
7–12+89%+15%+40%+48%
13–18+320%+145%+180%+215%
19–36βˆ’62%βˆ’75%βˆ’77%βˆ’71%

Past cycles do not guarantee future results. Each cycle shows diminishing returns.