Bitcoin price ÷ 200-day moving average — the simplest long-term valuation ratio, and the same chart CoinGlass and Bitcoin.com run as a standalone indicator.
Mayer Multiple = Current Price ÷ 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Created by Trace Mayer, it is the simplest of the major Bitcoin cycle indicators — no realized-cap data, no on-chain UTXO history, just price against its own long-term trend line. When the multiple is high, price has run far ahead of the 200-day trend (overheated). When it's low, price is dragging well below trend (potential value zone).
| Mayer Multiple | Zone | Historical Signal |
|---|---|---|
| > 2.4 | DANGER | Bubble territory — price closed here on <5% of all trading days historically. Every prior crossover above 2.4 later fell back below 1.5. |
| 1.5 – 2.4 | CAUTION | Late-stage bull market. Getting stretched above trend. |
| 1.0 – 1.5 | NEUTRAL | Healthy bull / fair value. Long-run average sits near 1.4. |
| 0.8 – 1.0 | ACCUMULATE | Below trend. Historically a reasonable long-term entry zone. |
| < 0.8 | OPPORTUNITY | Deep value zone. Coincided with the worst of the 2015 and 2018-19 bear lows. |
Fetching live BTC price…
| Date | Event | Mayer Multiple | BTC Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2017 | Bull Top | ~2.7 | $19,783 |
| Dec 2018 | Bear Bottom | ~0.65 | $3,122 |
| Nov 2021 | Bull Top | ~2.0 | $68,789 |
| Nov 2022 | Bear Bottom | ~0.65 | $15,742 |
| Sep 2026 | Current (approx.) | ~1.1 | ~$77,000 |
Values approximate — Mayer Multiple readings vary slightly by data source and exact MA calculation window. Each cycle top has printed a lower peak than the last (2013 >3.0 → 2017 ~2.7-3.4 → 2021 ~2.0), consistent with the diminishing-returns pattern seen across other Bitcoin cycle metrics as market cap grows.
All three are Bitcoin cycle indicators built from different data. Mayer Multiple is pure price-technicals: price divided by its own 200-day trend line — no on-chain data required, so you can compute it from any exchange chart. MVRV needs realized-cap data (what holders actually paid on-chain), making it an on-chain cost-basis metric rather than a price-trend one. Pi Cycle Top isn't a valuation ratio at all — it watches for a specific moving-average crossover (111-day vs 2×350-day) as a binary timing trigger. Because Mayer Multiple reacts fastest to price (it has no on-chain lag), it moves first; MVRV and Pi Cycle tend to confirm a top or bottom a bit later. Traders who use all three together are looking for confluence — when a fast price-based signal and a slower on-chain signal agree, the read is more reliable than either alone.
Say BTC trades at $77,000 while its 200-day MA sits at $70,000 → Mayer Multiple = 1.10, squarely in the NEUTRAL "healthy bull / fair value" zone — price is only modestly above its own long-term trend. Now imagine a sharp 6-week rally to $140,000 while the 200-day MA, being a slow-moving average, only drifts up to $85,000 → new Mayer Multiple = 1.65, into CAUTION territory. The MA barely moved because it averages the last 200 days, most of which predate the rally — that lag is exactly what makes the ratio useful: it flags when price is moving much faster than the underlying trend, not just when price is "high" in absolute terms.
Compare a slower, grinding rally instead: same move from $77,000 to $140,000 but spread over 10 months. The 200-day MA has time to catch up, rising to $105,000 → Mayer Multiple = 1.33, staying in NEUTRAL. Same price destination, very different signal, because the speed of the move — not just its size — is what the moving-average denominator captures.
Is Mayer Multiple the same as MVRV or Pi Cycle?
No. All three are Bitcoin cycle indicators but measure different things. Mayer Multiple compares price to its own 200-day moving average (pure price trend). MVRV compares market cap to realized cap (an on-chain cost-basis metric). Pi Cycle Top watches for a crossover between the 111-day and 2x350-day moving averages (a trend-reversal timing signal, not a valuation ratio). They often agree at extremes but can diverge for weeks at a time.
Why is 2.4 the key Mayer Multiple threshold?
Trace Mayer's original 2018 research found Bitcoin traded above 2.4x its 200-day moving average on fewer than 5% of all trading days in its history, and every time it crossed above 2.4 it later fell back below 1.5. That made 2.4 a practical statistical outlier line for "overheated" rather than a magic number — it is a historical frequency observation, not a law of markets.
Does the Mayer Multiple work for coins other than Bitcoin?
The math (price / 200-day MA) applies to any asset, but the historical threshold bands (0.8, 1.0, 2.4) were derived specifically from Bitcoin's ~15-year price history. Altcoins with shorter histories, different volatility profiles, or structural supply changes (unlocks, burns) will have different natural bands — you can compute the ratio for any coin, but don't reuse Bitcoin's exact zone cutoffs as a rule for altcoins.